Coinbase chief executive Brian Armstrong still expects Bitcoin to reach $400,000 by 2030, he told CNBC Squawk Box Asia on Thursday, calling it a “reasonable target” even as BTC currently trades around $77,000.

He pointed to Bitcoin’s oft-cited four-year cycle, arguing that it normally follows a familiar pattern of run-up and euphoria followed by a year-long down period. “We’ve actually just come across the one-year mark for this down period,” he said, adding that, “I personally believe that the bottom is in on Bitcoin in this most recent cycle” after its rise from around $60,000.

BitcoinBTC · USD

$76,855−2.52%

24H7D1M1YYTD

Sep 3Sep 5Sep 7Sep 8Sep 10

$81.8k$80.1k$78.5k$76.9k

24h HighHigh$79,606

24h LowLow$77,719

VolVol$1.2B

Market projectionsOdds by Myriad

Armstrong also suggested “we tend to see runups” ahead of Bitcoin halvings, with the next due in around 18 months. “I think the next year or two is going to be good for Bitcoin,” he added.

Reaching $400,000 would mean a fivefold rise in a little over three years. The downturn has seen Coinbase cut 14% of its staff, while it missed second-quarter earnings as trading slowed.

Waiting on Clarity

Armstrong was more confident about Washington. The Senate votes on the Clarity Act on September 15, and from everyone he has spoken to there, he said, it is “ready to get a yes vote.” Law enforcement groups, many banks and crypto companies are on board, he added, and the objections Coinbase raised previously have been resolved.

The remaining sticking point is ethics rules covering the president’s family crypto ventures. The White House has offered a provision Armstrong called “unprecedented” for a sitting president, while Democrats want divestiture. Those talks are live and close to a solution, he said, describing them as “a little above our pay grade.”

Users of prediction market Myriad, owned by Decrypt‘s parent company Dastan, don’t share his optimism. They put just a 17% chance on the Clarity Act being signed into law in 2026.

Failure would not much matter, on Armstrong’s account, because the SEC and CFTC have said they are ready to publish rulemaking and innovation exemptions under existing authority. Either way, he expects clarity within a month.

He cited last year’s Genius Act as the precedent, noting that more than 150 large companies integrated stablecoins in the three months after it passed. Passage of the Clarity Act would also bring tokenized equities and perpetual futures to U.S. customers, he said.

Coinbase has been building toward both regardless. It set out plans in June for tokenized stock trading with automatic dividends, which Armstrong contrasted with rivals offering “some form of derivative or IOU,” alongside options on crypto and equities. In May it became the first U.S. exchange approved to offer crypto perps. Executives describe the ambition as becoming the “everything exchange.”